Getting a Pulse on Cambodia’s Economy And Business Sentiment Heading into Q4 2025

Latest Economic Data - Cambodia 2025

A string of new economic projections was released as we head into the final financial quarter of 2025, and Cambodia’s economy is projected to moderate this year and into 2026 following the growth experienced in 2024. This is attributed mainly to the impact of US tariffs and regional geopolitical issues, notably the Thailand border dispute.

The real estate activity has been described as subdued in some reports, but industry-specific reports suggest it's stabilised after a market correction and bodes well for the long-term future.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has adjusted 2025 Cambodian growth to 4.9 per cent.
The World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update suggests Cambodia’s economy is projected to grow by 4.8 per cent this year and 4.3 per cent in 2026.

The World Bank added, “Cambodia’s economy remains robust in the face of global headwinds. The World Bank expects the economy to continue growing in the next few years, based on sound economic management by the government, export diversification and commitment to reform.”

In response, Cambodian Permanent Deputy Prime Minister Vongsey Vissoth confirmed that Cambodia is now projected to achieve a 5 per cent economic growth in 2025, down from 6 per cent in 2024. He added that GDP per capita is forecast to rise to nearly US $3,000 in 2025, up from US $2,713 in 2024.

The latest Business Pulse H1 2025 Survey (see more below) interestingly indicated that across those sectors surveyed, the US tariffs and Thai border situation overall impact was minimal, but the impact on businesses depends on being affected by disrupted supply chains and cancelled orders. There is also a time lag between when that survey was collected and now.

According to Japanese media reports, Japanese companies in Cambodia and Thailand have suggested that logistics costs have almost tripled due to the land border closure between Cambodia and Thailand.

Cambodian Trade 2025

Trade is still a key economic data point for the Kingdom, and Cambodia generated $22.3 billion from exports in the first nine months of 2025, which is an increase of 12.9 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.

Stephen Higgins - Managing Partner at Mekong Strategic Capital - posted this past week: “September trade statistics for Cambodia were released, and they tell an encouraging story. The standout trend, and it’s a major positive, is the continued industrialisation of the economy.

These are remarkable figures, reflecting both rising investment and deepening manufacturing capacity. They reinforce our long-term confidence in Cambodia’s economic trajectory, even as we expect short-term softness over the next 12 months.”

• Imports of mechanical equipment are up 52% year-to-date,
• Imports of Electrical machinery and goods are up 42%
• Imports of Iron, steel, and articles thereof are up a combined 59%.

He stressed that other key data sets to take note of were that Cambodia was “beginning to see the unwind of this year’s tariff distortions” and that exports remain up 13% year-to-date (garments up 19% higher over the year compared to 2024).

Imports have also risen in September by as much as 20 per cent and 17% year-to-date, which has widened the trade deficit. He added, “This increase is driven largely by capital equipment, not consumption - a long-term positive signal.”

AMRO’s report agrees that the fiscal deficit is projected to widen in 2025, “reflecting the government’s ongoing efforts to normalise public spending following the sharp cuts in 2024”. They added that the public debt is expected to rise to 27.2 per cent of GDP.

Business Pulse H1 2025 Survey Launch 

On Friday, 10 October, EuroCham Cambodia provided the results of the Business Pulse H1 2025 survey. The report is seen as “one of EuroCham’s flagship research projects” and is intended to provide “a data-driven snapshot of business sentiment across Cambodia’s most dynamic sectors - including real estate, tourism, agriculture, consumer products, and finance.”

Andries van Straten ran through slides on the performance and revenue results from H1 2025 compared with forecasts, the shifts in business confidence and sector outlooks, key market drivers and challenges shaping growth, as well as the implications and recommendations for private sector strategy and advocacy.

In total, the number of people surveyed is quite small, which is worth considering when reading the information below (150 people across 6 priority services, including real estate and construction, which made up nearly one-fifth of the total respondents).

Read More - Cambodia's Construction Sector: Key Trends & Investment Opportunities

The Eurocham Business Pulse H1 2025 Survey indicated that the real estate sector was showing a cyclical decline, and external factors for the sector, which were seen to contribute to this, included:

• Delays in projects
• Reduced demand for industrial and office/Industrial space compared to the heightened demand a few years ago

The real estate sector was showing optimism before H2 2025, but there is more of an across-the-board sector downward outlook for H2 2025 after a very positive outlook at the beginning of the year.

We have seen from the recently released Knight Frank’s 2025 H1 Real Estate Report, which broke down the subsectors within real estate, that there are indications that some areas were flat and others will see some moderate growth.

That report slightly contradicts the Eurocham survey, as it indicated that Phnom Penh’s office sector had experienced steady growth amid increased supply and changing market dynamics in the first half of 2025.

Only one sector in the Pulse report showed a positive trend, and that was Food and Agriculture. Most other sectors were negative or flat. 

Cambodia exported 596,341 tonnes of milled rice to 69 destinations in the first nine months of 2025, earning $408.93 million, reported the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) this past week. The country also exported 5,247,992 tonnes of paddy rice through border trade, generating $1.2 billion.

Expansion In Cambodia

Across the board, there was an indication from Eurocham members of a downward trend in terms of any plans for expansion in Cambodia. The one area again which was an exception was the Food & Agri industry, which the presenter noted is undergoing a transition from a commodity-based industry to processing.

Cambodia Business Environment & Cost-Cutting

Most sectors indicated they have been experiencing a more difficult business environment over the past 18 months and that the optimism from the end of 2024 has changed throughout this year. 

In terms of showing an intent to cut costs, the real estate sector was relatively flat, but some sectors are showing signs of strain and leading to cutting costs; only financial services showed no indication of this.

Two areas to take note of will be an expected uptick in retail spaces contributed by the launch of the new airport in Phnom Penh in September, but a sub-sect is also the new international school campuses being developed in or near the centre of the capital.

The latest of these is the KIT Phnom Penh Campus, which was announced recently. They said the new campus will bring world-class, project-based education right to the heart of Cambodia's capital.” 

Government Reform Impact & Cambodia as an Investment Destination

The positive impacts from government reforms have been trending downward, except for tourism and financial services, over the past year.  

The new Techo International Airport (KTI) will stage its official inauguration ceremony on October 20, and some new airlines and routes are providing optimism for increased tourism numbers. 

You can find out more about the Top 5 Long-Term Economic Impacts of Phnom Penh’s New Techo International Airport

When businesses were asked if they would recommend Cambodia as an investment destination, only the Agri and Financial Services were tracked as the biggest promoters based on the Eurocham criteria.

• The Cambodia Securities Sector released its Development Strategy 2025-2035, which is aimed at addressing challenges and attracting investment into the securities market.
• 458 trusts have now been registered with the Trust Regulator in the first nine months of 2025 - valued at approximately US $385 million.
• The latest CVEA report confirms the land market is undergoing a healthy adjustment, and the Phnom Penh average price was $1,790/sqm at the end of H1 2025.

One final note for property owners among all of the latest releases in Cambodia is that the General Department of Taxation (GDT) announced in October that there is an extension of the 2025 property tax payment deadline to December 31, 2025, which will allow for additional time for property owners in Cambodia to fulfil their tax obligations.