Tuol Kork, Sen Sok Market Review H1 2016

Feb. 16, 2017, 12:21 p.m.

seiha1 Market Summary

Sen Sok district (Khan in Khmer) has experienced a rapid growth, especially in term of residential, commercial, and infrastructure developments. Thus, land prices in the whole district increased markedly within the last couple of years. By the end of 2013, average market price of land in Sen Sok was US$380 per sqm. In the first half of 2016, average market price in the district rose to US$690 per sqm, with average growth of 27 percent y-o-y from 2013 to 2015. Nevertheless, land market prices across Sen Sok district have stagnated since the beginning of 2016, making Q1-to-Q2 2016 list price ratio to drop to 99 percent, though minimally, as property sellers were testing the market at which a reasonable market price should be met.

Tuol Kouk district, on the other hand, experienced a slight rise in land price within the same period, from average market price of US$2,150 per sqm in 2013 to US$ 2,530 per sqm in early 2016, growing at 6 percent y-o-y within the tracked period. However, across Tuol Kouk district, Q1-to-Q2 2016 list price ratio dropped to 99 percent due to real estate market stagnancy since the start of this year.

In sum, these two districts both of which lie northwest of the central Phnom Penh have enjoyed a rapid growth in term of residential and commercial developments. The suburban Sen Sok district, for example, has witnessed a noticeable pace of developments, especially mixed-use landed housing and infrastructure, which gives rise to a change in the skyline and rapid surge in land prices over the course of the previous three years. This growth will continue its pace as developers foresee market optimism over the next coming years.

seiha2

Land Market Pricing

Tuol Kouk District

Over the last preceding decade, Northern fringes of Tuol Kouk district was the first main destination for residential relocation because of its available large portions of vacant land and a neighborhood of the central parts of the capital.  Land prices across the district, therefore, started to surge ever since. In 2005, average market price across the district was about US$1,100 per sqm, with a threshold of US$450 per sqm along secondary streets to US$1,900 per sqm along primary streets

Early this year, average land market price across Toul Kouk rose to US$2,530 per sqm, while some of the prime commercial streets could fetch a market price as high as US$5,750 per sqm. Over a decade, average growth rate of land prices in the district was about 10 percent y-o-y, and during the last three years the growth was about 6 percent.

Remarkable land price surge was seen in Boeng Kak Ti Muoy and Boeng Kak Ti Pir, both of which are Tuol Kouk’s northern communes adjacent to emerging Phnom Penh Thmey of Sen Sok and densely-populated Tuol Sangkae of Ruessei Kaev district. The former grew at 17 percent y-o-y within the period from 2013 to 2015, and the latter, 13 percent. The two communes’ higher growth in land market prices, if compared to that of other communes in Tuol Kouk, was pushed by two key factors. First, because of their relatively small market price base (from a minimum of US$650 per sqm in the last three years), a small price jump could see an enormous growth in y-o-y rate. Second, their attractive, emerging locations have been ideal for residential towns, high-rise developments, and commercial establishments, all of which pushed market demand to rise. As a result, buyers were willing to accept the offers and through this, the market prices started to increase relatively more quickly over the last three years.

On the other hand, many parts of the Tuol Kouk seemed almost to reach their price caps, as many available development and establishment opportunities have now appeared elsewhere throughout many of the peripheral parts of the district and its neighborhoods, offering much lower prices and promising opportunities. Such parts almost reaching land price caps are Phsar Depou, as high as US$5,750 per sqm and Tuek L’ak, as high as US$5,200 per sqm.

Sen Sok District

Over the previous three years, property market prices across Sen Sok witnessed a double digit growth, with 27% y-o-y from 2013 to 2015. Back to 2013, average land price across the district was US$380 per sqm, and it grew to US$690 per sqm in the first half 2016.

Khmuonh, one of the four fastest growing communes (sangkat in Khmer) of Sen Sok district, enjoyed a relative quick pace of residential town (such as Grand Phnom Penh International) and infrastructure developments, with main streets such as Hanoi (St. 1019) almost finished this year and Tumnup Kop Srov Road (the capital’s ring road) due to completion sometime soon. As a result, average growth for land price in Khnuonh commune was 35 percent y-o-y, from US$230 per sqm in 2013 to US$480 per sqm in the first half of 2016, with market prices along main streets ranging from US$300 per sqm to US$710 per sqm.

Krang Thnong, adjacent to Phnom Penh Thmey commune and a quick access to the prominent Russian Boulevard, also witnessed a double-digit growth in land prices, with an average of 29 percent y-o-y, from an average of US$110 per sqm in 2013 to US$210 per sqm in the first half of 2016 across the commune. The enormous growth in land prices was driven mainly by residential potentials thanks to many available parcels of vacant land, including residential plot land movements and ongoing town development such as Borey Maha Sen Sok by Japanese developer Creed Group.

Phnom Penh Thmey, adjacent to Boeng Kak Ti Muoy and Boeng Kak Ti Pir, the two prominent communes among 10 of Tuol Kouk district, also experienced a double-digit growth, having stood high thanks to its development potentials and strategic market position where several remarkable development projects such as borey New World (La Sen Sok), second project of AEON Mall, and borey Chip Mong Land, to name a few, have already been pinned up on the map. Thus, land prices grew at average 19 percent y-o-y within 2013-2015 period, from an average of US$530 per sqm in 2013 to US$830 per sqm in the first half of 2016. Remarkable potentials in Phnom Penh Thmey commune have been also seen after the completion of main infrastructure, for example, Oknha Mong Reththy and Hanoi Street.

Market Performance Tuol Kouk District

A central zone of the capital, Tuol Kouk district has experienced a tremendous change in its skyline and infrastructure, which led to an increase of property demand as well as prices across the district over the last three years. Yet, average SP-to-LP ratio across property market in Tuol Kouk was 95 percent in 2015, while average original-to-last list price ratio dropped slightly to 99 percent Q1-on-Q2 2016.

Low pricing ratios were noticeable in Phsar Depou Ti Muoy commune, where SP-to-LP ratio went down to 90 percent, lower than those in any other communes across Tuol Kouk district. The low pricing ratios in the two communes could be dragged down by the disruption of Techno Flyover construction process that affected on profitability of prime business spots along Russian Boulevard and its surroundings, thus resulting in less-commercial options for buyers to seriously consider the properties over there.

Sen Sok District

Despite enjoying a significant growth in most parts of the districts over the course of the previous three years, Sen Sok’s property market heat has been slightly cooled down since early 2016 due to overall slowdown in property transactions. Given that average sale-to-list price ratio (SP-to-LP) was 93 percent in 2015, average achieved sale rate across the district was 7 percent below the original list prices, although H1-on-H2 2015 list price ratio (LP) rose to 101 percent. However, during the first half of 2016, average original-to-last list price ratio was 99 percent Q1-on-Q2.

The fact that pricing ratios, typically sale price, went down to 93 percent across property market in Sen Sok district means there were many available properties, especially numerous unoccupied homes and vacant parcels of land, and therefore buyers have more power to negotiate for a lower price. Nevertheless, that average original-to-last list price ratio went down to 99 percent was a sign that many of sellers were adapting their asking prices to cope with less aggressive market demand during the first half of 2016.

Outlooks and Trends

With an organic trend of relocation from the central city to suburban and peripheral areas of the capital in a bid to cope with rapid land price growth, accelerating traffic pressure, and increasingly overcrowded city dwellers, a number of people have started to move out to several suburban parts where they form new towns and communities, remarkably since the five years, and Sen Sok district is no exception.

Major development trends have been noticeable across Sen Sok, especially its Phnom Penh Thmey commune, which is situated northwest of its neighboring Boeng Kak Ti Muoy and Boeng Kak Ti Pir of Tuol Kouk district. Today, throughout many parts of Phnom Penh Thmey are situated many of finished housing projects such as (1) two of Borey Peng Hout projects the Star Emerald and the Star Quarteria, all of which are along Oknha Mong Reththy Street (1928 St.), (2) two of Borey New World projects, one of which is located a hundred meters off Mong Reththy Street and another is on Oknha Try Heng Street (2011 St.).

Another ongoing Borey New World (La Sen Sok) on Oknha Mong Reththy Street has been almost finished, whereas only its community shopping mall remains under construction. Further, Borey Park Land (Sen Sok) along the same street is due to completion sometime next year.

More importantly, the second project of AEON Mall by Japanese developers has been pinned on the map in the most promising zone, immediately adjacent to Borey New World (La Sen Sok) and less than 800-meter-radius ring of Camko City (southeast), Borey Angkor Phnom Penh (north), Borey Park Land (southwest), and Borey Peng Huot (south). These factors have brought about more demand for the area, including housing unitsand parcels of land, thus pushing prices to hike rapidly.

Phnom Penh Thmey is a popular location for buying a first home,being voted by 20 percent of the surveyed prospective buyers (conducted by VTrust Appraisal), ahead of other areas such asChrouy Changva (16 percent), Stueng Meanchey (11 percent),Toul Kouk (11 percent), unspecified areas (17 percent), and otherareas combined (25 percent).

This research report was a production of V Trust Appraisal.